Additional Demand and Supply Information

The United States is the world's largest producer of industrial timber, accounting for roughly 25 percent of global industrial roundwood production.  The United States imports and exports tens of billions of dollars of timber products annually.  Its large productive forest resource base is why it produces so much and its huge domestic economy is why it imports so much.  Over the last decade the United States has imported about 60 percent more timber products than it exported. United States timber exports go predominately to Europe, Canada, Japan, and Latin America.  The major exports are wood pulp, printing and writing paper, and hardwood lumber.  Most timber imports come from Canada (softwood lumber, panels, and newsprint).

Southern timber products play a major role in this international trade, especially southern pine lumber, hardwood lumber (especially oak), southern pine plywood, kraft pulp, and kraft-based paper (packaging and paperboard).   The principal markets for these products are Western Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean.  The populations and economies of the latter two regions are rapidly growing and future exports are expected to also grow.

The Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 requires periodic assessments of the nation's timber situation.  The current assessment includes projections going to 2050.  The model takes into account variables like dramatic reductions in National Forest harvests, population increases, increases in per capita income, and environmental pressures that restrict timber harvest.  The South is expected to lose nearly 4 million acres of timberland and the rest of the country may lose 20 million timbered acres.  This means privately-owned land must be more intensively managed to compensate for declining forest area.  Timber production is expected to shift more to the South with its larger share of private land.  By 2050 domestic consumption of softwoods is expected to increase by 47 percent and consumption of hardwoods by 27 percent.  Harvests of softwoods are expected to increase 30 percent and harvests of hardwoods should increase by 17 percent.

The South will continue to be the Nation's wood basket.  Currently, just over 60 percent of the nation's softwood harvest comes from the South; by 2050 it will be nearly two-thirds. The South's share of the hardwood harvest will continue to be nearly 60 percent of the nation's total harvest.  Except for softwood pulpwood, modest nominal timber price increases are projected to 2050 in the South.  Softwood sawtimber timber prices should increase by 39 percent, softwood pulpwood timber prices are expected to decline in price by 29 percent, and both hardwood sawtimber and pulpwood are expected to double in price.  Timber production will flow to the South from other regions and increases in timber prices will result from increasing consumer demand and diminished timber supply (land base reduction, environmental regulation, and a reduced National Forest harvest).